Football betting looking to make some extra cash by wagering on their favorite teams however, as scoring has increased across many leagues; it has changed the landscape for bettors. Goals and points impact betting lines and strategies are crucial to success.
Rise of high-scoring games
There’s no doubt that football has become higher scoring over the past decade. The average goal per game in the English Premier League has risen from 2.48 in 2009/10 to 2.72 in 2019/20. The NFL has seen a similar upward trend, going from 44.07 points per game in 2010 to 46.33 in 2019. While subtle, these increases make a big difference in total betting.
Once a total of 2.5 goals or 43 points would be quite high, now those are moderate or even low totals. Teams are more aggressive on offense, taking more risks that pay off in scores. Defences have also struggled to contain dynamic offenses built on spacing, misdirection, and creativity. This forces odds makers to set higher lines to account for the increase in firepower. It also challenges conventional betting wisdom. No longer do you count on those Under 2.5 goals or low-point total bets to be safe. The scoring landscape has changed drastically in football betting.
How to adjust your totals bets
The rise in goals and points has made the basics of total betting more complicated. What used to be high is now average or low. Here are some tips to adjust:
- Does your research – Don’t rely on outdated logic. Look at recent totals and trends to get a sense of the new norms for each league and team. Track betting spbo line movements as well.
- Fade big overs – With more high-scoring games, sky-high totals become tempting. But the odds makers have caught on too. Massive overs are designed to get action on both sides, so be careful playing them.
- Back moderate overs – The sweet spot has become more moderate overs. Teams reach 3-4 goals or mid-50 point totals regularly. These let you take advantage of scoring while allowing room for variance.
- Pick your spots on unders – Unders may hit less often but still provide value on low totals where defenses dominate or stars are out injured. Don’t force them, but capitalize on certain matchups.
- Consider alternate lines – If you like an Over on a big total but want better odds, alternate lines let you reduce the line for a better payout. For example, Over 3.5 goals at -120 become Over 2.5 at -150.
Pick sides with confidence
Increased scoring has also made picking sides trickier – a 2 or 3-goal lead is no longer safe. Here are some ways to adjust:
- Lean toward favorites – Big favorites have more ways to score and pull away as underdogs press for goals. Back them to cover bigger spreads and alternate lines.
- Pick primetime/home teams – Good offensive teams playing at home or in marquee primetime games tend to raise their scoring. Use this to your advantage.
- Target poor defenses – Some defenses still struggle to contain offenses. Identify weak units and target matchups to exploit them.
- Watch for “shootout” potential – When two shaky defenses face-off, expect fireworks. Look for weak D against weak D and bet on the Over.
- Back teams with injuries/resting players – One key injury or rested star could open the floodgates. If one team is affected, analyze how it impacts their scoring ability.
